Curley Lee J, MacLean Rory, Murray Jennifer, Pollock Andrew C, Laybourn Phyllis
School of Applied Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
1 Pladda Avenue, Irvine, KA11 1DR, Scotland, UK.
Psychiatr Psychol Law. 2018 Dec 5;26(1):110-128. doi: 10.1080/13218719.2018.1485520. eCollection 2019.
This study aims to identify whether a model of juror decision-making (i.e. the threshold point model) that encompasses both rational and intuitive decision-making exists. A total of 60 participants were selected who are eligible for jury duty in Scotland. These individuals read nine vignettes and rated the evidence of each vignette separately by placing the evidence in either a guilty, a not guilty or a not proven (a verdict type specific to Scotland) counter. Participants were asked after being presented with each piece of information to state how likely they thought the suspect was of being guilty, on a scale from 1 to 100. The data are best described using a flexible model (i.e. a diffusion model) that allows for information integration. Future research should examine whether or not the diffusion model can explain cognitive fallacies, such as confirmation bias, that are commonly studied in decision science.
本研究旨在确定是否存在一种包含理性和直觉决策的陪审员决策模型（即阈值点模型）。总共挑选了60名有资格在苏格兰担任陪审员的参与者。这些人阅读了九个短文，并通过将证据放入有罪、无罪或未证实（苏格兰特有的一种裁决类型）的计数器中，分别对每个短文的证据进行评分。在呈现每条信息后，参与者被要求以1到100的尺度表明他们认为嫌疑人有罪的可能性有多大。使用允许信息整合的灵活模型（即扩散模型）来最好地描述这些数据。未来的研究应该检验扩散模型是否能够解释决策科学中常见的认知谬误，如确认偏差。
