School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing, China.
Department of Computer Science, Kostroma State University, Kostroma, Russia.
PLoS One. 2020 Jan 28;15(1):e0227206. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227206. eCollection 2020.
Complexity modelling of economic efficiency and growth potential is increasingly essential for countries and provinces. Evaluating the monetary flows, kinetic energy (efficiency) and potential capacity (resilience) provides crucial information for economic development. In the paper, the authors analyze growth opportunities for the Chinese economy from a system science point of view, using the perspective of information entropy, based on the input-output tables. Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable progress in its economic development. In 2007, China's GDP was at its fastest pace in history at 14.2% growth. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy experienced a downward trend and China's economic development also settled on a medium-low level of development. The traditional perspective is to rank regional development only based on GDP growth, whereas here, the authors advocate another evaluation method based on efficiency and potential growth. Unbalanced regional economic development has become problematic and has become a barrier for sustainability of China's economy. The results of the research indicate firstly that China's regional development in 2007 and 2012 has been unequal between the provinces. Secondly, the authors found that Shandong province had significantly higher indicators for efficiency and potential growth than others in the same circumstances. Authors observe that provinces tend to carry out industrial policies and adjust the structure of industry on a local level. This analysis demonstrates that the spatial imbalance of efficiency and potential of economic development under the perspective of provincial-level regions. From the perspective of industry, it indicates that the supply chain is too short, mainly focusing on the mining and processing of resources and minerals in the original upstream industry chain, while the downstream is not fully utilized. These represent some unique insights yielded through this type of analysis that authors advocate applying more broadly.
经济效率和增长潜力的复杂性建模对于国家和省份来说变得越来越重要。评估货币流动、动能（效率）和潜在能力（弹性）为经济发展提供了关键信息。本文作者从系统科学的角度分析了中国经济的增长机会，使用信息熵的观点，基于投入产出表。在过去四十年的改革开放中，中国的经济发展取得了显著的进步。2007 年，中国 GDP 增长速度达到历史最快的 14.2%。然而，2008 年金融危机后，全球经济呈下降趋势，中国的经济发展也稳定在中低水平。传统的观点仅根据 GDP 增长来衡量区域发展，而在这里，作者主张另一种基于效率和潜在增长的评估方法。区域经济发展不平衡已成为一个问题，成为中国经济可持续发展的障碍。研究结果表明，首先，2007 年和 2012 年中国的区域发展在各省之间是不平衡的。其次，作者发现，在相同情况下，山东省的效率和潜在增长指标明显高于其他省份。作者观察到，各省倾向于在地方层面上实施产业政策并调整产业结构。这一分析表明，从省级区域的角度来看，经济发展效率和潜力的空间不平衡。从产业角度来看，这表明供应链过于短，主要集中在资源和矿产的上游原始产业链的开采和加工，而下游没有得到充分利用。这些都是通过这种分析得出的一些独特见解，作者主张更广泛地应用。
