School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, No.96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, 230026, Anhui Province, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Apr;27(11):12345-12357. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-07818-0. Epub 2020 Jan 28.
The coordinated development of environmental pollution and the economy has become a global problem. Emission trading scheme (ETS) has become a significant environmental policy instrument, prior studies primarily concentrated on micro-level factors with specific industries; there lacks discussion on the effects of ETS on macro-level industrial structure such as industrial structure upgrading. In this paper, we first use the propensity score matching (PSM) to screen out the control group in which countries are matched with the members of the EU, and then utilize the difference-in-differences (DID) method, to examine the effects of ETS implementation on national industrial structure upgrading in the members of the EU. Empirical results show that the EU ETS may does not have a significant impact on industrial structure change, while the implementation of EU ETS has significantly promoted the upgrading of the country's industrial structure, and the policy effect of EU ETS on industrial structure upgrading gradually increases as time goes by and there is a dynamic effect. The conclusions of this paper can be used as reference for the development of emission reduction policies in large countries with unbalanced internal development.
环境污染与经济协调发展已成为全球性问题。排放交易计划（ETS）已成为一项重要的环境政策工具，先前的研究主要集中在具有特定行业的微观层面因素上，而对于 ETS 对宏观层面产业结构（如产业结构升级）的影响缺乏讨论。本文首先使用倾向得分匹配（PSM）筛选出与欧盟成员国相匹配的对照组国家，然后利用双重差分（DID）方法，检验 ETS 实施对欧盟成员国国家产业结构升级的影响。实证结果表明，欧盟 ETS 可能对产业结构变化没有显著影响，而欧盟 ETS 的实施显著促进了国家产业结构的升级，并且随着时间的推移，欧盟 ETS 对产业结构升级的政策效应逐渐增加，存在动态效应。本文的结论可以为发展中国家不平衡的内部发展减排政策的制定提供参考。
