Jenkins M A, Hurley S F, Jolley D J, Oliver R G, McLean A J, McNeil J J
Alfred Hospital, Prahran, VIC.
Med J Aust. 1988;149(11-12):620-4. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.1988.tb120805.x.
Trends in Australian mortality rates that have been ascribed to asthma and to non-tuberculous, non-malignant respiratory diseases were examined for the period 1979-1985. Mortality rates of asthma and respiratory diseases increased substantially from 1979 to 1985, and in the case of asthma, the crude death rate in 1985 was higher than at the peak of the "epidemic" of the 1960s. The increase in mortality of asthma was most pronounced in those of greater than 60 years of age (from 11.5 per 100,000 such population in 1979 to 22.9 per 100,000 such population in 1985). Asthma mortality rates in five- to 34-year-old persons increased, although there were marked yearly fluctuations, and deaths of asthma in this age-group comprised only a small percentage (13% in 1985) of all deaths of asthma. Reasons that are considered for the rising death rate of asthma include changes in diagnostic fashion; an increase in the incidence or a change in the natural history of asthma; and an increased case fatality rate. With the presently-available data, it is not possible to distinguish among these possible explanations.
对1979 - 1985年期间澳大利亚归因于哮喘以及非结核、非恶性呼吸道疾病的死亡率趋势进行了研究。从1979年到1985年，哮喘和呼吸道疾病的死亡率大幅上升，就哮喘而言，1985年的粗死亡率高于20世纪60年代“流行高峰”时的水平。哮喘死亡率的上升在60岁以上人群中最为明显（从1979年每10万此类人群中的11.5例升至1985年每10万此类人群中的22.9例）。5至34岁人群的哮喘死亡率有所上升，尽管每年有明显波动，且该年龄组的哮喘死亡人数仅占哮喘总死亡人数的一小部分（1985年为13%）。哮喘死亡率上升的原因包括诊断方式的改变；哮喘发病率的增加或自然病程的变化；以及病死率的增加。根据目前可得的数据，无法在这些可能的解释中做出区分。
