Anspaugh L R, Catlin R J, Goldman M
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550.
Science. 1988 Dec 16;242(4885):1513-9. doi: 10.1126/science.3201240.
Radioactive material was deposited throughout the Northern Hemisphere as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station on 26 April 1986. On the basis of a large amount of environmental data and new integrated dose assessment and risk models, the collective dose commitment to the approximately 3 billion inhabitants is calculated to be 930,000 person-gray, with 97% in the western Soviet Union and Europe. The best estimates for the lifetime expectation of fatal radiogenic cancer would increase the risk from 0 to 0.02% in Europe and 0 to 0.003% in the Northern Hemisphere. By means of an integration of the environmental data, it is estimated that approximately 100 petabecquerels of cesium-137 (1 PBq = 10(15) Bq) were released during and subsequent to the accident.
1986年4月26日切尔诺贝利核电站事故致使放射性物质沉积于整个北半球。基于大量环境数据以及新的综合剂量评估和风险模型,对约30亿居民的集体剂量承诺计算得出为930,000人-戈瑞,其中97%位于苏联西部和欧洲。对致命性辐射致癌终生预期的最佳估计表明,欧洲的风险将从0增至0.02%,北半球则从0增至0.003%。通过整合环境数据估计,事故期间及之后约释放了100拍贝克勒尔的铯-137(1 PBq = 10(15) Bq)。