Okamura Hiroshi, Ikeda Shiro, Morita Takami, Eguchi Shinto
Research Center for Fisheries Management, National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, Kanagawa 236-8648, Japan;
Department of Mathematical Analysis and Statistical Inference, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Apr 5;113(14):3838-43. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1519792113. Epub 2016 Feb 29.
Food contamination caused by radioisotopes released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant is of great public concern. The contamination risk for food items should be estimated depending on the characteristics and geographic environments of each item. However, evaluating current and future risk for food items is generally difficult because of small sample sizes, high detection limits, and insufficient survey periods. We evaluated the risk for aquatic food items exceeding a threshold of the radioactive cesium in each species and location using a statistical model. Here we show that the overall contamination risk for aquatic food items is very low. Some freshwater biota, however, are still highly contaminated, particularly in Fukushima. Highly contaminated fish generally tend to have large body size and high trophic levels.
福岛第一核电站释放的放射性同位素所导致的食品污染备受公众关注。食品的污染风险应根据每种食品的特性和地理环境来评估。然而，由于样本量小、检测限高以及调查周期不足，评估食品当前和未来的风险通常很困难。我们使用统计模型评估了每个物种和地点的水生食品超过放射性铯阈值的风险。在此我们表明，水生食品的总体污染风险非常低。然而，一些淡水生物群落仍然受到高度污染，尤其是在福岛。受污染严重的鱼类通常体型较大且营养级较高。
