Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333, Munich, Germany.
Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333, Munich, Germany.
Water Res. 2020 Apr 15;173:115502. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2020.115502. Epub 2020 Jan 21.
Climate change is affecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall extreme events worldwide. Despite the growing global awareness, developing flood resilient cities has proven to be a major challenge. This paper investigates the application of an event-based scalable Flood Resilience Index (FRI) for assessing climate change adaptation. Flood resilience is represented by three dimensions: physical, social and economic. A household climate adaptation is adopted consisting of a combination of a flood-proof gate with an indoor tank and a submersible pump system implemented in all houses. The climate related impact under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) is analysed for Munich with the CRCM5 Large-Ensemble. Results show that for Munich extreme heavy rainfall events are increasing. The FRI can successfully identify households and districts which: a) are mostly affected by heavy rainfall, b) benefit the most from the climate adaptation, and c) are the most resilient. For the most severe future scenario investigated the climate adaptation measure was able to improve 57% of all affected buildings within Maxvorstadt to an FRI equal to 1.0 during the event and recovery phase.
气候变化正在影响全球降雨极值事件的频率和强度。尽管全球对此的认识日益增强,但建设具有抗洪涝能力的城市已被证明是一项重大挑战。本文研究了基于事件的可扩展洪涝韧性指数(FRI)在评估气候变化适应方面的应用。洪涝韧性由三个维度来表示:物理、社会和经济。采用了一种基于家庭的气候适应方法,即所有房屋都安装防洪门、室内水箱和潜水排污泵系统。利用 CRCM5 大集合模型分析了慕尼黑在高排放情景(RCP8.5)下的气候相关影响。结果表明,慕尼黑的极端强降雨事件正在增加。FRI 可以成功识别出受强降雨影响最大、从气候适应措施中受益最多和最具弹性的家庭和地区。在所研究的最严重未来情景中,气候适应措施能够在事件和恢复阶段将 Maxvorstadt 内 57%的受影响建筑物的 FRI 提高到 1.0。