Department of Economics & Finance, Baruch College/CUNY, 55 Lexington Avenue, Box 10-226, New York, NY, 10010, USA.
Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, 1307 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
Demography. 2020 Feb;57(1):323-346. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00853-8.
In this article, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of parental involvement (PI) laws on the incidence of abortions to minors in the United States. We contribute to the extant literature in several ways. First, we explore differences in estimates of the effect of PI laws across time that may result from changes in contraception, the composition of pregnant minors, abortion access in nearby states, and differences in how these laws are enforced. We find that PI laws enacted before the mid-1990s are associated with a 15% to 20% reduction in abortions to minors, but PI laws enacted after this time are not associated with declines in abortions to minors. Second, we assess the role of out-of-state travel by minors and find that it is not a significant factor moderating the effect of PI laws. Third, we use a synthetic control approach to explore state-level heterogeneity in the effect of PI laws and find large differences in the effect of PI laws on abortions to minors by state that appear unrelated to the type of PI law or whether contiguous states have enacted PI laws. Finally, we show that estimates of the effect of PI laws using data from either the Centers for Disease Control or the Guttmacher Institute do not differ qualitatively once differences in the states and years available across these data are harmonized.
本文对父母参与（PI）法对美国未成年人堕胎发生率的影响进行了全面分析。我们在几个方面对现有文献做出了贡献。首先，我们探讨了 PI 法在时间上的估计差异，这些差异可能源于避孕措施的变化、未成年孕妇的构成、附近州的堕胎机会以及这些法律的执行方式的不同。我们发现，1990 年代中期以前颁布的 PI 法与未成年人堕胎率降低 15%至 20%相关，但此后颁布的 PI 法与未成年人堕胎率降低无关。其次，我们评估了未成年人的州际旅行的作用，发现它不是调节 PI 法效果的重要因素。第三，我们使用综合控制法来探索 PI 法效果的州级异质性，发现 PI 法对未成年人堕胎的影响在各州之间存在很大差异，这些差异似乎与 PI 法的类型或相邻州是否颁布 PI 法无关。最后，我们表明，一旦协调了这些数据中各州和年份的差异，使用疾病控制中心或古特马赫研究所的数据估计 PI 法的效果在质量上没有差异。
