Preventing heart disease: is treating the high risk sufficient?

Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the effects of several intervention strategies on coronary heart disease mortality rates in a Finnish and a North American cohort. Lowering total serum cholesterol by 4%, smoking by 15%, and diastolic blood pressure by 3% for the whole cohort would be expected to reduce the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction by at least 13% and coronary heart disease deaths by at least 18%. Lowering serum cholesterol by 34%, diastolic blood pressure to 90 mmHg, and reducing smoking by 20% in the subset of the population with all three risk factors in the highest quartile would result in a 6-8% reduction in non-fatal myocardial infarction and a 2-9% reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease in these cohorts. These data demonstrate that in populations with a relatively high incidence of heart disease, treating the entire population will produce larger effects than focusing only on high-risk populations.