Ocean Tester, LLC, 295 Dills Point Road, Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Beaufort Laboratory, 101 Pivers Island Road, Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA.
Harmful Algae. 2020 Jan;91:101655. doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2019.101655. Epub 2020 Jan 15.
Sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans are projected to warm by 0.4-1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30-31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.
到二十一世纪中叶，全球海洋表面温度预计将升高 0.4-1.4°C，这将导致许多热带和亚热带的有害甲藻属（ Gambierdiscus、Fukuyoa 和 Ostreopsis，即底栖有害藻类 bloom 物种，BHABs）在其当前地理分布范围内的大部分地区表现出更高的增长率，从而导致更高的种群密度。这种趋势的主要例外将出现在热带地区，那里的温度超过了特定物种的上限热容忍度（30-31°C），超过这个温度，生长会显著减缓。随着表层水变暖，预计会向更深的栖息地迁移以寻求庇护。预计也会出现几度纬度的范围扩展，但前提是特定物种的栖息地要求能够得到满足（例如，温度、合适的基质、低紊流、光照、盐度、pH 值）。本文回顾了决定物种分布的栖息地要求，以更全面地了解在未来 50 年里，各个物种将如何对气候变化做出反应，同时解决了控制局部栖息地小尺度分布的环境因素信息匮乏的问题。基于现有信息，我们假设复杂的环境相互作用如何影响不同生物地理区域的 BHAB 物种的丰度和潜在的范围扩展，并确定适合长期监测计划的哨兵站点，以检测范围扩展并降低人类健康风险。
