52 个西班牙城市使用实测气象站和再分析数据比较温度-死亡率相关性。
Comparison of temperature-mortality associations using observed weather station and reanalysis data in 52 Spanish cities.
机构信息
Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain.
Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain; Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain.
出版信息
Environ Res. 2020 Apr;183:109237. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109237. Epub 2020 Feb 6.
BACKGROUND
Most studies use temperature observation data from weather stations near the analyzed region or city as the reference point for the exposure-response association. Climatic reanalysis data sets have already been used for climate studies, but are not yet used routinely in environmental epidemiology.
METHODS
We compared the mortality-temperature association using weather station temperature and ERA-5 reanalysis data for the 52 provincial capital cities in Spain, using time-series regression with distributed lag non-linear models.
RESULTS
The shape of temperature distribution is very close between the weather station and ERA-5 reanalysis data (correlation from 0.90 to 0.99). The overall cumulative exposure-response curves are very similar in their shape and risks estimates for cold and heat effects, although risk estimates for ERA-5 were slightly lower than for weather station temperature.
CONCLUSIONS
Reanalysis data allow the estimation of the health effects of temperature, even in areas located far from weather stations or without any available.
背景
大多数研究使用分析区域或城市附近的气象站的温度观测数据作为暴露-反应关联的参考点。气候再分析数据集已经用于气候研究，但尚未在环境流行病学中常规使用。
方法
我们使用时间序列回归分布滞后非线性模型，比较了西班牙 52 个省会城市的气象站温度和 ERA-5 再分析数据的死亡率-温度关联。
结果
气象站和 ERA-5 再分析数据之间的温度分布形状非常接近（相关性从 0.90 到 0.99）。虽然 ERA-5 的风险估计值略低于气象站温度，但寒冷和炎热影响的总体累积暴露-反应曲线在形状和风险估计方面非常相似。
结论
再分析数据允许估计温度对健康的影响，即使在远离气象站或没有气象站的地区也是如此。
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