Centre for Risk Studies, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 13 Trumpington St, Cambridge CB2 1QA, UK.
Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd, 25 Gwydir Street, Cambridge CB1 2LG, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Apr 3;378(2168):20190372. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0372. Epub 2020 Feb 17.
This paper examines recovery after major floods in the UK and Germany. It focuses on two areas that were badly hit by flooding: Catcliffe, near Sheffield in the UK, and Passau in Bavaria, Germany. It reports on surveys of residents and businesses in each place and on surveys of national flood experts in both countries. The two events were comparable in terms of impacts, levels of preparedness and government response and show similar patterns of speed and quality of recovery. In Germany, it took about 18 months for 90% or more of residents to get back to normal, while in the UK it took a year longer. This difference may be related to funding; in the UK, over 90% of funding came from household insurance while in Germany over 60% came from federal aid, which may have been quicker. In both countries, the economy had recovered to near normal within 12-18 months. The majority of people surveyed in both countries (74% in Germany and 67% in the UK) believe that their homes and businesses are as just as vulnerable now as they were before the respective floods. However, in the UK, half of the respondents thought their neighbourhood was safer and better prepared compared to only 11% in Germany. This may be because substantial progress has been made in improving protection in the UK in areas flooded in 2007. Both floods were considered to be 'game-changers' and resulted in a heightened awareness of flood risk, increased investment in flood defences and an increasing emphasis on citizens taking more responsibility for flood preparedness. However, the Environment Agency in the UK lacks powers to prevent development in flood-prone areas, in Germany there are issues of coordination across large catchments that cross state boundaries and the insurance sector could play a bigger role in 'building back better'. Many homes and businesses continue to be at risk from major floods and more progress needs to be made in making them more resilient. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.
本文考察了英国和德国的洪灾后恢复情况。它主要关注两个受洪灾严重影响的地区：英国谢菲尔德附近的卡特菲尔德（Catcliffe）和德国巴伐利亚的帕绍（Passau）。报告介绍了这两个地方的居民和企业的调查情况，以及两国国家洪水专家的调查情况。这两个事件在影响、准备程度和政府应对方面具有可比性，并且表现出类似的恢复速度和质量模式。在德国，大约 90%或更多的居民需要 18 个月才能恢复正常，而在英国则需要一年多的时间。这种差异可能与资金有关；在英国，超过 90%的资金来自家庭保险，而在德国，超过 60%的资金来自联邦援助，这可能更快。在这两个国家，经济在 12-18 个月内恢复到接近正常水平。两国接受调查的大多数人（德国 74%，英国 67%）认为，他们的住房和企业现在和各自的洪灾之前一样脆弱。然而，在英国，一半的受访者认为他们的社区比德国更安全，准备更充分，而德国只有 11%的人这样认为。这可能是因为在英国，在 2007 年被洪水淹没的地区，保护工作取得了实质性进展。这两次洪水都被认为是“改变游戏规则”的事件，导致人们对洪水风险的认识提高，对防洪设施的投资增加，以及越来越强调公民对防洪准备承担更多责任。然而，英国的环境署缺乏防止易受洪水影响地区发展的权力，在德国，跨越州界的大型集水区存在协调问题，保险部门可以在“更好地重建”方面发挥更大的作用。许多房屋和企业仍然面临着重大洪水的风险，需要在提高它们的抗灾能力方面取得更多进展。本文是“城市洪水韧性”主题特刊的一部分。
