King's College, London, and Diabetes Frail Ltd, Luton, United Kingdom.
International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2020 Apr;162:108078. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2020.108078. Epub 2020 Feb 14.
The main aims are: (a) to draw attention to the nature and pattern of recent global and regional prevalence estimates and projections of diabetes in older adults (65-99 years), and (b) to describe the societal health implications of these changes on a global scale.
Diabetes prevalences and projections were estimated using a logistic regression method to generate smoothed age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates for 5-year age groups.
In 2019, it is estimated that 19.3% of people aged 65-99 years (135.6 million, 95% CI: 107.6-170.6 million) live with diabetes. It is projected that the number of people older than 65 years (65-99 years) with diabetes will reach 195.2 million by 2030 and 276.2 million by 2045. For the regional distribution, the highest prevalence in 2019 being the North America and Caribbean Region at 27.0%. Countries with the highest number of people older than 65 years with diabetes are China, the United States of America and India.
There is a need for more data from national and regional sources on those aged 65 years and over, but the prevailing evidence points to diabetes being a considerable global chronic illness burden in ageing societies.
主要目的是:(a) 引起人们对最近全球和区域老年(65-99 岁)人群糖尿病患病率估计值和预测值的性质和模式的关注;(b) 描述这些变化在全球范围内对社会健康的影响。
使用逻辑回归方法估计糖尿病患病率和预测值,以生成 5 岁年龄组的平滑年龄和性别特异性患病率估计值。
2019 年,估计有 19.3%的 65-99 岁人群(1.356 亿人,95%CI:1.076-1.706 亿人)患有糖尿病。预计到 2030 年,65 岁以上(65-99 岁)的糖尿病患者人数将达到 195.2 万,到 2045 年将达到 276.2 万。在区域分布方面,2019 年患病率最高的是北美洲和加勒比地区,为 27.0%。65 岁以上糖尿病患者人数最多的国家是中国、美国和印度。
需要更多来自国家和地区的关于 65 岁及以上人群的数据,但现有证据表明,糖尿病是老龄化社会中相当大的全球慢性疾病负担。