International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium.
Institute for Health Services Research and Health Economics, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2022 Jan;183:109119. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109119. Epub 2021 Dec 6.
To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045.
A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence.
The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045.
Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.
提供 2021 年全球、区域和国家糖尿病患病率和卫生支出估计值，并预测 2045 年的数据。
共确定了 219 个数据源，这些数据源符合预先设定的质量标准，报告了 2005 年至 2020 年期间进行的研究，代表了 215 个国家和地区。对于没有符合质量标准数据的国家，根据经济、种族、地理和语言相似的国家进行了推断。使用逻辑回归生成平滑的年龄特异性糖尿病患病率估计值。使用归因分数法估计与糖尿病相关的卫生支出。将 2021 年的糖尿病患病率估计值应用于 2045 年的人口估计值，以预测未来的患病率。
2021 年，20-79 岁人群的全球糖尿病患病率估计为 10.5%（5366 万人），到 2045 年将上升至 12.2%（7832 万人）。男性和女性的糖尿病患病率相似，在 75-79 岁人群中患病率最高。2021 年，城市地区（12.1%）的患病率高于农村地区（8.3%），高收入国家（11.1%）高于低收入国家（5.5%）。与高收入（12.2%）和低收入（11.9%）国家相比，预计 2021 年至 2045 年期间，中低收入国家（21.1%）的糖尿病患病率增长幅度最大。2021 年全球与糖尿病相关的卫生支出估计为 9660 亿美元，预计到 2045 年将达到 10540 亿美元。
全世界有超过 5500 万人患有糖尿病，这意味着现在全球有超过 10.5%的成年人患有这种疾病。
