Arias-Monsalve Clara, Builes-Jaramillo Alejandro
Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín, Colombia.
Institución Universitaria Colegio Mayor de Antioquia, Facultad de Arquitectura e Ingeniería, Medellín, Colombia.
J Infect Dev Ctries. 2019 Dec 31;13(12):1108-1116. doi: 10.3855/jidc.11702.
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by a bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Climate is key in order to understand leptospirosis dynamics. El Niño Southern Oscillation is the main modulator of climate in Colombia. Our goal was to analyze the changes that occurred in number of cases and incidence rate of leptospirosis during La Niña and El Niño episodes in Colombia at three spatial scales in the period between 2007 and 2015.
A cross-sectional retrospective study was performed.
correlation and lagged cross correlation between time series of Oscillation Niño Index and time series of standardized number of leptospirosis cases; construction of annual cycle of leptospirosis; comparison of changes of number of cases between Neutral, periods with El Niño and Neutral periods with La Niña.
At the national level, monthly number of cases raised a 25% during La Niña and decreased of 17% during El Niño. At departmental level, increase of cases in both phases of ENSO, depending on the location in the country, was found. At the municipal level, 17 have a rise in the number of cases during La Niña months. Of those, seven presented also an increase of cases during El Niño months and eight have a significant negative correlation with ONI.
In Colombia, there exists a relationship between leptospirosis and the excess and lack of rainfall related with ENSO. The contrasting results from each spatial scale, reinforce that leptospirosis is a multidimensional disease with high complex interactions among its determinants.
钩端螺旋体病是一种由钩端螺旋体属细菌引起的人畜共患病。气候是了解钩端螺旋体病动态的关键因素。厄尔尼诺南方涛动是哥伦比亚气候的主要调节因素。我们的目标是分析2007年至2015年期间，在哥伦比亚三个空间尺度上，拉尼娜和厄尔尼诺事件期间钩端螺旋体病病例数和发病率的变化情况。
进行了一项横断面回顾性研究。
厄尔尼诺指数时间序列与钩端螺旋体病标准化病例数时间序列之间的相关性和滞后交叉相关性；构建钩端螺旋体病的年周期；比较中性期、厄尔尼诺期和拉尼娜期之间病例数的变化。
在国家层面，拉尼娜期间每月病例数增加25%，厄尔尼诺期间减少17%。在部门层面，根据该国的地理位置，发现厄尔尼诺-南方涛动两个阶段的病例数均有增加。在市一级，17个市在拉尼娜月份病例数有所上升。其中，7个市在厄尔尼诺月份病例数也有所增加，8个市与海洋尼诺指数呈显著负相关。
在哥伦比亚，钩端螺旋体病与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动相关的降雨过多和过少之间存在关联。每个空间尺度的对比结果都强化了钩端螺旋体病是一种多维度疾病，其决定因素之间存在高度复杂的相互作用。
