Faculty of Economics, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland, Oddi v/Sturlugötu, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland.
Faculty of Medicine, Center of Public Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Econ Hum Biol. 2020 May;37:100861. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100861. Epub 2020 Feb 8.
After several years of a booming economy in Iceland, the economic bubble burst in 2008 and affected most Icelanders in one way or another. We explore whether the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent economic crisis affected the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events, independent of regular cyclical effects that can be attributed to typical economic conditions. Moreover, we conduct a mediation analysis to study the potential mechanisms through which the relationship between the economic collapse and cardiovascular health travels. We estimate linear probability models using administrative data on IHD events, earnings and balance-sheet status, as well as unemployment for all Icelanders aged 16 and older in 2000-2014. We find that the sharp change in economic conditions in 2008 increased the probability of cardiovascular events in both males and females in the long term. In absolute terms, these effects were small in magnitude but often statistically significant, amounting to approximately 13-16 extra cases of IHD events in each of the two years following the collapse for males and 3-5 addition cases for females. Moreover, they contrast with the finding that general business-cycle fluctuations operated in the opposite direction. Several potential mediators were correlated with the probability of IHD events, but their inclusion had little impact on the estimated effects of the economic crisis. A statistically significant business-cycle effect is found for both genders indicating that in general, harder economic times are beneficial for heart health. Thus, the general business cycle and the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent crisis can be thought of as separate phenomena with differing effects on IHD.
冰岛经济在经历了几年的繁荣之后，2008 年经济泡沫破裂，以这样或那样的方式影响了大多数冰岛人。我们探讨了 2008 年的经济崩溃和随后的经济危机是否影响了缺血性心脏病 (IHD) 事件的概率，而不考虑可以归因于典型经济状况的常规周期性影响。此外，我们进行了中介分析，以研究经济崩溃与心血管健康之间关系的潜在机制。我们使用 2000-2014 年所有 16 岁及以上冰岛人的行政数据，估计了线性概率模型，这些数据涉及 IHD 事件、收入和资产负债状况以及失业情况。我们发现，2008 年经济状况的急剧变化在长期内增加了男性和女性患心血管事件的概率。从绝对值来看，这些影响的幅度很小，但通常具有统计学意义，相当于男性在经济崩溃后的两年内每增加约 13-16 例 IHD 事件，女性增加 3-5 例。此外，这些结果与一般商业周期波动方向相反的发现形成对比。几个潜在的中介因素与 IHD 事件的概率相关，但它们的纳入对经济危机估计影响的影响很小。发现两性都存在统计学显著的商业周期效应，表明一般来说，经济困难时期对心脏健康有益。因此，一般商业周期和 2008 年及随后的危机中的经济崩溃可以被视为具有不同影响的两个不同现象。
