Gethmann Jörn, Probst Carolina, Conraths Franz J
Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Epidemiology, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
Front Vet Sci. 2020 Feb 14;7:65. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2020.00065. eCollection 2020.
Germany was affected by Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) from 2006 to 2009 and recorded new cases since December 2018. We assessed the economic impact of the epidemic from the first cases in 2006 until 2018. Direct costs include production losses, animal deaths, and veterinary treatment. Indirect costs include surveillance, additional measures for animal export, disease control (preventive vaccination and treatment with insecticides), vector monitoring, and administration. To estimate the financial impact of BTV-8 on different species and production types at the animal level, we performed a gross margin analysis (GMA) for dairy and beef cattle, and sheep. To estimate the impact on the national level, we used a modified framework described by Rushton et al. (1) and applied a methodology described by Bennett (2). Both the GMA and the economic model on national level were implemented in Excel and the Excel Add-in @Risk. The tools, which are widely applicable, also for other diseases, are made available here. The financial impact of a BTV-8 infection at the animal level was estimated at 119-136 Euros in dairy cattle, at 27 Euros in beef cattle, and at 74 Euros in sheep. At the national level, the impact of the BTV-8 epidemic ranged between 157 and 203 million Euros (mean 180 million Euros). This figure consisted of 132 (73%) and 48 (27%) million Euros for indirect and direct costs. Indirect costs included 89 million Euros (67%) for vaccination, 18 million Euros (14%) for insecticide treatment, 15 million Euros (11%) for diagnostic testing of animals dispatched for trade, 8 million Euros (6%) for monitoring and surveillance, and 3 million Euros (2%) for administration. The highest costs were induced by a compulsory vaccination campaign in 2008 (51 million Euros; 28% of the total costs) and the disease impact on cattle in 2007 (30 million Euros; 17%). We compare the outcome of our study with economic analyses of Bluetongue disease in other countries, and discuss the suitability of GMA and the developed tools for a wider application in veterinary economics.
德国在2006年至2009年期间受到蓝舌病病毒8型（BTV - 8）的影响，并自2018年12月起记录到新病例。我们评估了从2006年首例病例至2018年该疫情的经济影响。直接成本包括生产损失、动物死亡和兽医治疗费用。间接成本包括监测、动物出口的额外措施、疾病控制（预防性疫苗接种和杀虫剂处理）、媒介监测及行政管理费用。为了估计BTV - 8在动物层面上对不同物种和生产类型的财务影响，我们对奶牛、肉牛和绵羊进行了边际收益分析（GMA）。为了估计在国家层面的影响，我们使用了Rushton等人（1）描述的一个经过修改的框架，并应用了Bennett（2）描述的一种方法。GMA和国家层面的经济模型均在Excel及Excel插件@Risk中实现。这里提供了这些工具，它们也广泛适用于其他疾病。BTV - 8感染在动物层面上对奶牛的财务影响估计为119 - 136欧元，对肉牛为27欧元，对绵羊为74欧元。在国家层面，BTV - 8疫情的影响在1.57亿至2.03亿欧元之间（平均1.8亿欧元）。这个数字由间接成本1.32亿欧元（73%）和直接成本4800万欧元（27%）组成。间接成本包括疫苗接种8900万欧元（67%）、杀虫剂处理1800万欧元（14%）、用于贸易的动物诊断检测1500万欧元（11%）、监测800万欧元（6%）以及行政管理300万欧元（2%）。最高成本是由2008年的强制疫苗接种运动（5100万欧元；占总成本的28%）以及2007年疾病对牛的影响（3000万欧元；占17%）所致。我们将研究结果与其他国家对蓝舌病的经济分析进行了比较，并讨论了GMA及所开发工具在兽医经济学中更广泛应用的适用性。
