Transport, Health and Urban Design Research Hub, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast, Australia.
Ergonomics. 2020 Aug;63(8):981-996. doi: 10.1080/00140139.2020.1739326. Epub 2020 Mar 18.
How humans will adapt and respond to the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is uncertain. This study used an agent-based model to explore how AVs, human-operated vehicles, and cyclists might interact based on the introduction of flawlessly performing AVs. Under two separate experimental conditions, results of experiment 1 showed that, despite no conflicts occurring between cyclists and AVs, modelled conflicts among human-operated cars and cyclists increased with the introduction of AVs due to cyclists' adjusted expectations of the behaviour and capability of human-operated and autonomous cars. Similarly, when human-operated cars were replaced with AVs over time in experiment 2, cyclist conflict rates did not follow a linear reduction consistent with the replacement rate but decreased more slowly in the early stages of replacement before 50% substitution. It is concluded that, although flawlessly performing AVs might reduce total conflicts, the introduction of AVs into a transport system where humans adjust to the behaviour and risk presented by AVs could create new sources of error that offset some of AVs assumed safety benefits. Ergonomics is an applied science that studies interactions between humans and other elements of a system, including non-human agents. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) provides an approach for exploring dynamic and emergent interactions between agents. In this article, we demonstrate ABM through an analysis of how cyclists and pedestrians might interact with Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in future road transport systems. ABM: agent-based model; AV: autonomous vehicle; ODD; overview, design concepts and details; RW: rescorla-wagner.
人类将如何适应和应对自动驾驶汽车（AV）的引入尚不确定。本研究使用基于代理的模型来探索自动驾驶汽车、人类操作的汽车和自行车在完美执行自动驾驶汽车引入后的可能交互方式。在两个单独的实验条件下，实验 1 的结果表明，尽管自行车和自动驾驶汽车之间没有发生冲突，但由于自行车对人类操作的汽车和自动驾驶汽车的行为和能力的期望发生了调整，因此人类操作的汽车和自行车之间的建模冲突随着自动驾驶汽车的引入而增加。同样，当人类操作的汽车随着时间的推移在实验 2 中被自动驾驶汽车取代时，自行车冲突率并没有像预期的那样随着替代率呈线性减少，而是在替代率达到 50%之前的早期阶段减少得更慢。因此得出结论，尽管完美执行的自动驾驶汽车可能会减少总冲突，但将自动驾驶汽车引入到一个人类需要适应自动驾驶汽车的行为和风险的交通系统中，可能会产生新的错误来源，从而抵消一些自动驾驶汽车假设的安全效益。工效学是一门应用科学，研究人类与系统中其他元素（包括非人类代理）之间的交互作用。基于代理的建模（ABM）提供了一种探索代理之间动态和突发交互作用的方法。在本文中，我们通过分析自行车和行人在未来道路交通系统中可能与自动驾驶汽车（AV）的交互方式来展示 ABM。ABM：基于代理的模型；AV：自动驾驶汽车；ODD：概述、设计理念和细节；RW：rescorla-wagner。
