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投资者心理、情绪变化与可持续横截面收益:基于中国特定一周中某一天投资非流动性股票的案例研究

Investor Psychology, Mood Variations, and Sustainable Cross-Sectional Returns: A Chinese Case Study on Investing in Illiquid Stocks on a Specific Day of the Week.

作者信息

Ying Qianwei, Yousaf Tahir, Ain Qurat Ul, Akhtar Yasmeen

机构信息

Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2020 Feb 19;11:173. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00173. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

This paper uncovers a new finding of sustainable cross-sectional variations in stock returns explained by mood fluctuations across the days of the week. Long/short leg of illiquid anomaly returns are extensively related to the days of the week, and the magnitude of excess returns is also striking [Long leg refers to portfolio deciles that earn higher excess returns. Historical evidence suggests that more illiquid stock earn higher excess returns (Amihud, 2002; Corwin and Schultz, 2012)]. The speculative leg of illiquid anomalies is the long leg (Birru, 2018) [The speculative leg falls into the long leg of anomaly because more illiquid stocks are sensitive to investor sentiment (Birru, 2018)]. Therefore, the long (speculative) leg experiences more sustainable high returns on Friday than the short (non-speculative) leg. At the same time, relatively higher long (speculative) leg returns were witnessed on Friday than Monday with a greater magnitude difference. These cross-sectional variations in illiquid stocks on specific days are consistent with the explanation of the limit to arbitrage. The observed variations in cross-sectional returns are sustained and consistent with plenty of evidence from psychology research regarding the low mood on Monday and high mood on Friday.

摘要

本文揭示了一个新发现,即股票回报中可持续的横截面变化可由一周内各日的情绪波动来解释。流动性不足异象回报的多空组合与一周中的日期密切相关,超额回报的幅度也很显著[多头组合指获得较高超额回报的投资组合十分位数。历史证据表明,流动性越低的股票获得的超额回报越高(阿米胡德,2002年;科温与舒尔茨,2012年)]。流动性不足异象的投机性组合是多头组合(比鲁,2018年)[投机性组合属于异象的多头组合,因为流动性越低的股票对投资者情绪越敏感(比鲁,2018年)]。因此,与空头(非投机性)组合相比,多头(投机性)组合在周五获得的可持续高回报更多。同时,周五多头(投机性)组合的回报相对周一更高,且幅度差异更大。特定日期流动性不足股票的这些横截面变化与套利限制的解释一致。观察到的横截面回报变化是持续的,并且与心理学研究中大量关于周一情绪低落和周五情绪高涨的证据相符。

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本文引用的文献

1
Mood and judgment: the affect infusion model (AIM).情绪与判断:情感注入模型(AIM)
Psychol Bull. 1995 Jan;117(1):39-66. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.117.1.39.

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