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利用改进的地理加权回归研究 2015 年中国 PM 与气象、地形和排放的空间变化关系。

Investigation of the spatially varying relationships of PM with meteorology, topography, and emissions over China in 2015 by using modified geographically weighted regression.

机构信息

School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430079, China.

School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430079, China; Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, Hubei, China.

出版信息

Environ Pollut. 2020 Jul;262:114257. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114257. Epub 2020 Feb 28.

DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114257
PMID:32146364
Abstract

PM pollution is caused by multiple factors and determining how these factors affect PM pollution is important for haze control. In this study, we modified the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and investigated the relationships between PM and its influencing factors. Experiments covering 368 cities and 9 urban agglomerations were conducted in China in 2015 and more than 20 factors were considered. The modified GWR coefficients (MGCs) were calculated for six variables, including two emission factors (SO and NO concentrations), two meteorological factors (relative humidity and lifted index), and two topographical factors (woodland percentage and elevation). Then the spatial distribution of MGCs was analyzed at city, cluster, and region scales. Results showed that the relationships between PM and the different factors varied with location. SO emission positively affected PM, and the impact was the strongest in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. The impact of NO was generally smaller than that of SO and could be important in coastal areas. The impact of meteorological factors on PM was complicated in terms of spatial variations, with relative humidity and lifted index exerting a strong positive impact on PM in Pearl River Delta and Central China, respectively. Woodland percentage mainly influenced PM in regions of or near deserts, and elevation was important in BTH and Sichuan. The findings of this study can improve our understanding of haze formation and provide useful information for policy-making.

摘要

PM 污染是由多种因素造成的,确定这些因素如何影响 PM 污染对于控制雾霾非常重要。在本研究中,我们对地理加权回归(GWR)模型进行了修正,并研究了 PM 与其影响因素之间的关系。我们于 2015 年在中国的 368 个城市和 9 个城市群进行了实验,共考虑了 20 多个因素。我们计算了六个变量的修正地理加权回归系数(MGC),其中包括两个排放因子(SO 和 NO 浓度)、两个气象因子(相对湿度和抬升指数)和两个地形因子(林地百分比和海拔高度)。然后,我们在城市、城市群和地区尺度上分析了 MGC 的空间分布。结果表明,PM 与不同因素之间的关系因地点而异。SO 排放对 PM 有正面影响,在京津冀地区影响最大。NO 的影响一般小于 SO,在沿海地区可能很重要。气象因素对 PM 的影响在空间上变化复杂,相对湿度和抬升指数分别对珠江三角洲和华中地区的 PM 有很强的正向影响。林地百分比主要影响沙漠地区或附近的 PM,海拔高度在京津冀和四川地区很重要。本研究的结果可以提高我们对雾霾形成的认识,并为决策提供有用的信息。

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