Chen Chen, Saikawa Eri, Comer Bryan, Mao Xiaoli, Rutherford Dan
Department of Environmental Sciences Emory University Atlanta GA USA.
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) Washington DC USA.
Geohealth. 2019 Sep 30;3(9):284-306. doi: 10.1029/2019GH000183. eCollection 2019 Sep.
Ship emissions contribute to air pollution, increasing the adverse health impacts on people living in coastal cities. We estimated the impacts caused by ship emissions, both on air quality and human health, in 2015 and future (2030) within the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. In addition, we assessed the potential health benefits of implementing an Emission Control Area (ECA) in the region by predicting avoided premature mortality with and without an ECA. In 2015, ship emissions increased PM concentrations and O mixing ratios by 1.4 μg/m and 1.9 ppb, respectively, within the PRD region. This resulted in 466 and 346 excess premature acute deaths from PM and O, respectively. Premature mortality from chronic exposures was even more significant, with 2,085 and 852 premature deaths from ship-related PM and O, respectively. In 2030, we projected the future ship emissions with and without an ECA, using two possible land scenarios. With an ECA, we predicted 76% reductions in SO and 13% reductions in NO from the shipping sector. Assuming constant land emissions from 2015 in 2030 ( scenario), we found that an ECA could avoid 811 PM-related and 108 O-related deaths from chronic exposures. Using scenario for land emissions, we found that an ECA would avoid 1,194 PM-related and 160 O-related premature deaths in 2030. In both scenarios, implementing an ECA resulted in 30% fewer PM-related premature deaths and 10% fewer O-related premature deaths, illustrating the importance of reducing ship emissions.
船舶排放会造成空气污染，加重对沿海城市居民健康的不利影响。我们估算了2015年以及未来（2030年）中国珠江三角洲（PRD）地区船舶排放对空气质量和人类健康造成的影响。此外，我们通过预测有无排放控制区（ECA）情况下避免的过早死亡人数，评估了在该地区实施排放控制区的潜在健康益处。2015年，珠江三角洲地区船舶排放使PM浓度和O混合比分别增加了1.4μg/m和1.9ppb。这分别导致因PM和O造成的466例和346例额外过早急性死亡。慢性暴露导致的过早死亡更为显著，分别有2085例和852例因船舶相关的PM和O导致的过早死亡。在2030年，我们使用两种可能的陆地情景预测了有无排放控制区情况下未来的船舶排放。有了排放控制区，我们预计航运部门的SO减少76%，NO减少13%。假设2030年陆地排放与2015年保持不变（情景），我们发现排放控制区可避免811例与PM相关的和108例与O相关的慢性暴露导致的死亡。使用陆地排放的情景，我们发现排放控制区在2030年将避免1194例与PM相关的和160例与O相关的过早死亡。在这两种情景中，实施排放控制区使与PM相关的过早死亡减少30%，与O相关的过早死亡减少10%，这说明了减少船舶排放的重要性。
