Conibear Luke, Reddington Carly L, Silver Ben J, Chen Ying, Arnold Stephen R, Spracklen Dominick V
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK.
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK.
Geohealth. 2022 Jun 1;6(6):e2021GH000567. doi: 10.1029/2021GH000567. eCollection 2022 Jun.
Anthropogenic emissions and ambient fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations have declined in recent years across China. However, PM exposure remains high, ozone (O) exposure is increasing, and the public health impacts are substantial. We used emulators to explore how emission changes (averaged per sector over all species) have contributed to changes in air quality and public health in China over 2010-2020. We show that PM exposure peaked in 2012 at 52.8 μg m, with contributions of 31% from industry and 22% from residential emissions. In 2020, PM exposure declined by 36% to 33.5 μg m, where the contributions from industry and residential sources reduced to 15% and 17%, respectively. The PM disease burden decreased by only 9% over 2012 where the contributions from industry and residential sources reduced to 15% and 17%, respectively 2020, partly due to an aging population with greater susceptibility to air pollution. Most of the reduction in PM exposure and associated public health benefits occurred due to reductions in industrial (58%) and residential (29%) emissions. Reducing national PM exposure below the World Health Organization Interim Target 2 (25 μg m) would require a further 80% reduction in residential and industrial emissions, highlighting the challenges that remain to improve air quality in China.
近年来，中国的人为排放量和环境细颗粒物（PM）浓度有所下降。然而，PM暴露水平仍然很高，臭氧（O）暴露正在增加，对公众健康的影响很大。我们使用模拟器来探究2010 - 2020年期间排放变化（所有物种各部门平均）如何影响了中国的空气质量和公众健康。我们发现，PM暴露在2012年达到峰值，为52.8微克/立方米，其中工业排放贡献了31%，居民排放贡献了22%。到2020年，PM暴露下降了36%，降至33.5微克/立方米，此时工业和居民源的贡献分别降至15%和17%。2020年，PM疾病负担相比2012年仅下降了9%，工业和居民源的贡献分别降至15%和17%，部分原因是人口老龄化，使得人们对空气污染更加敏感。PM暴露的减少以及相关的公众健康益处，大部分是由于工业排放（58%）和居民排放（29%）的减少。要将全国PM暴露水平降至世界卫生组织临时目标2（25微克/立方米）以下，居民和工业排放还需进一步减少80%，这凸显了中国在改善空气质量方面仍面临的挑战。
