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能源系统的低环境影响和有限成本途径:在气候变化影响最小化的同时,会在毒性和金属消耗类别中产生环境协同效益和挑战。

Energy System Pathways with Low Environmental Impacts and Limited Costs: Minimizing Climate Change Impacts Produces Environmental Cobenefits and Challenges in Toxicity and Metal Depletion Categories.

机构信息

Interdisciplinary Research Laboratory on Sustainable Engineering and Ecodesign (LIRIDE), Civil and Building Engineering Department, Sherbrooke University, 2500 Boul. de l'Université, Sherbrooke, Québec J1K 2R1, Canada.

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, Switzerland.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2020 Apr 21;54(8):5081-5092. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b06484. Epub 2020 Mar 30.

Abstract

Environmental indicators based on the life cycle assessment method are integrated into an energy system model. This integration allows for the generation of comprehensive environmental assessments of future energy systems and for determining energy scenarios with less environmental impacts and moderate cost increases. In Switzerland, which is used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, it is possible to generate pathways with a 5% cost increase on the cost-optimal situation, causing an impact score for climate change that is 2% higher than the minimum feasible solution. The minimization of life-cycle impacts on climate change generates substantial environmental cobenefits with regard to human health, air pollution, ozone depletion, acidification, and land transformation. However, this minimization also creates trade-offs that exacerbate the effects of metal depletion and human toxicity caused by upstream extraction and manufacturing linked to technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Finally, ambitious reduction targets of 95% direct (i.e., within the country) CO emissions for the year 2050 might still result in substantial climate change impacts should emissions embodied in the infrastructure and upstream supply chain not be jointly mitigated jointly.

摘要

基于生命周期评估方法的环境指标被整合到能源系统模型中。这种整合使得能够对未来的能源系统进行全面的环境评估,并确定具有较小环境影响和适度成本增加的能源情景。在瑞士,该方法被用作案例研究来展示其可行性,结果表明,在成本最优情况下增加 5%的成本,可以使气候变化的影响评分比最小可行解决方案高 2%。将气候变化的生命周期影响最小化,可以在人类健康、空气污染、臭氧消耗、酸化和土地转化等方面带来实质性的环境协同效益。然而,这种最小化也带来了一些权衡,加剧了与太阳能电池板和电动汽车等技术相关的上游开采和制造过程中金属消耗和人类毒性的影响。最后,如果不共同缓解基础设施和上游供应链中的排放,那么到 2050 年将国内直接(即在国内)二氧化碳排放量减少 95%的雄心勃勃的目标仍可能导致重大的气候变化影响。

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