Wolfram Paul, Weber Stephanie, Gillingham Kenneth, Hertwich Edgar G
Yale University, School of the Environment, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Yale University, School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 8;12(1):7121. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27247-y.
Large-scale electric vehicle adoption can greatly reduce emissions from vehicle tailpipes. However, analysts have cautioned that it can come with increased indirect emissions from electricity and battery production that are not commonly regulated by transport policies. We combine integrated energy modeling and life cycle assessment to compare optimal policy scenarios that price emissions at the tailpipe only, versus both tailpipe and indirect emissions. Surprisingly, scenarios that also price indirect emissions exhibit higher, rather than reduced, sales of electric vehicles, while yielding lower cumulative tailpipe and indirect emissions. Expected technological change ensures that emissions from electricity and battery production are more than offset by reduced emissions of gasoline production. Given continued decarbonization of electricity supply, results show that a large-scale adoption of electric vehicles is able to reduce CO emissions through more channels than previously expected. Further, carbon pricing of stationary sources will also favor electric vehicles.
大规模采用电动汽车可大幅减少车辆尾气排放。然而，分析人士警告称，这可能会带来电力和电池生产间接排放的增加，而这些排放通常不受交通政策监管。我们结合综合能源建模和生命周期评估，比较仅对尾气排放定价的最优政策情景与同时对尾气和间接排放定价的情景。令人惊讶的是，对间接排放也定价的情景下，电动汽车的销量更高而非更低，同时尾气和间接排放的累计量更低。预期的技术变革确保了电力和电池生产的排放减少量超过汽油生产排放的减少量。鉴于电力供应持续脱碳，结果表明，大规模采用电动汽车能够通过比此前预期更多的渠道减少二氧化碳排放。此外，对固定源的碳定价也将有利于电动汽车。
