使用病死率滞后时间估算 COVID-19 的病死率风险估计。
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality.
出版信息
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1339-1441. doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200320. Epub 2020 Jun 17.
Abstract
We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.
摘要
我们估计了中国（3.5%）、中国湖北省以外地区（0.8%）、82 个国家、地区和领土（4.2%）以及一艘游轮（0.6%）的冠状病毒疾病病例的病死率。较低的估计可能更接近真实值，但 0.25%-3.0%的广泛范围可能也应该被考虑。
相似文献
1
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality.使用病死率滞后时间估算 COVID-19 的病死率风险估计。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1339-1441. doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200320. Epub 2020 Jun 17.
2
Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020.估算 2020 年 1-2 月中国新冠肺炎死亡风险。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1251-1256. doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200233. Epub 2020 Jun 17.
3
Importance of timely management of patients in reducing fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019.及时对患者进行管理对降低 2019 年冠状病毒病死亡率的重要性。
J Infect Public Health. 2020 Jun;13(6):890-892. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.04.015. Epub 2020 May 11.
4
Global COVID-19 fatality analysis reveals Hubei-like countries potentially with severe outbreaks.全球新冠病毒死亡病例分析显示，可能存在类似湖北严重疫情爆发情况的国家。
J Infect. 2020 Jul;81(1):e87-e88. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.03.029. Epub 2020 Apr 14.
5
Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China.估算中国 COVID-19 的即时病死率。
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;97:1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.055. Epub 2020 Apr 24.
6
Impact of lockdown on Covid-19 case fatality rate and viral mutations spread in 7 countries in Europe and North America.封锁对欧洲和北美 7 个国家的新冠病毒病死率和病毒突变传播的影响。
J Transl Med. 2020 Sep 2;18(1):338. doi: 10.1186/s12967-020-02501-x.
7
Estimation of Coronavirus Disease Case-Fatality Risk in Real Time.实时估算冠状病毒疾病病死率。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;26(8):1922-1923. doi: 10.3201/eid2608.201096. Epub 2020 Apr 21.
8
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.新型冠状病毒疾病 2019 严重程度的估计：基于模型的分析。
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;20(6):669-677. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7. Epub 2020 Mar 30.
9
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe.估算疫情早期 SARS-CoV-2 的死亡率：在中国湖北和欧洲六个地区的建模研究。
PLoS Med. 2020 Jul 28;17(7):e1003189. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189. eCollection 2020 Jul.
10
Understanding and Interpretation of Case Fatality Rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019.2019年冠状病毒病病死率的理解与解读
J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Mar 30;35(12):e137. doi: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e137.
引用本文的文献
1
Physical, Emotional, and Social Pain During COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Social Isolation.新冠疫情相关社交隔离期间的身体、情感和社交痛苦。
Trends Psychol. 2022 Mar 1:1-29. doi: 10.1007/s43076-022-00149-8.
2
Improving case fatality ratio estimates in ongoing pandemics through case-to-death time distribution analysis.通过病例至死亡时间分布分析改进正在流行疾病的病死率估计
Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 13;15(1):5402. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-89441-y.
3
Dynamic Characteristics of Lymphocyte Subsets and Their Predictive Value for Disease Progression and Prognosis in Primary Infection and Unvaccinated COVID-19 Patients.原发性感染且未接种疫苗的新冠肺炎患者淋巴细胞亚群的动态特征及其对疾病进展和预后的预测价值
Int J Gen Med. 2024 Oct 10;17:4559-4577. doi: 10.2147/IJGM.S478912. eCollection 2024.
4
A new method for accurate calculation of case fatality rates during a pandemic: Mathematical deduction based on population-level big data.一种在大流行期间准确计算病死率的新方法：基于人群水平大数据的数学推导
Infect Med (Beijing). 2023 Mar 31;2(2):96-104. doi: 10.1016/j.imj.2023.03.002. eCollection 2023 Jun.
5
Application of distributed lag models and spatial analysis for comparing the performance of the COVID-19 control decisions in European countries.分布式滞后模型和空间分析在比较欧洲国家 COVID-19 控制决策效果中的应用。
Sci Rep. 2023 Oct 14;13(1):17466. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-44830-z.
6
The limits of human mobility traces to predict the spread of COVID-19: A transfer entropy approach.利用人类流动轨迹极限预测新冠病毒传播：一种转移熵方法
PNAS Nexus. 2023 Sep 14;2(10):pgad302. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad302. eCollection 2023 Oct.
7
Case fatality rate considering the lag time from the onset of COVID-19 infection to related death from 2020 to 2022 in Japan.2020年至2022年日本新冠病毒感染发病至相关死亡的滞后时间下的病死率。
IJID Reg. 2023 Sep;8:36-48. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.04.013. Epub 2023 May 1.
8
Examining Impacts of COVID-19-Related Stay-At-Home Orders through a Two-Way Random Effects Model.通过双向随机效应模型研究与新冠疫情相关的居家令的影响。
Transp Res Rec. 2023 Apr;2677(4):255-266. doi: 10.1177/03611981211046921. Epub 2021 Sep 23.
9
What Is the Place of Intermediate Care Unit in Patients with COVID-19? A Single Center Experience.《COVID-19 患者的中级护理单元的地位如何？一项单中心经验》。
Int J Clin Pract. 2023 Apr 20;2023:8545431. doi: 10.1155/2023/8545431. eCollection 2023.
10
High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies.技术在应对新型呼吸道病毒方面具有巨大潜力：用于有效医疗保健以应对下一次大流行紧急情况的机械通气设备。
Technol Soc. 2023 May;73:102233. doi: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102233. Epub 2023 Mar 21.
本文引用的文献
1
The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China, 2020.2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的流行病学特征 - 中国，2020年
China CDC Wkly. 2020 Feb 21;2(8):113-122.
2
Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study.中国武汉严重 COVID-19 患者的临床病程和结局：一项单中心、回顾性、观察性研究。
Lancet Respir Med. 2020 May;8(5):475-481. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30079-5. Epub 2020 Feb 24.
3
Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data.2019新型冠状病毒感染右删失情况下的潜伏期及其他流行病学特征：基于公开病例数据的统计分析
J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 17;9(2):538. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020538.
4
Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak.正在进行的全球新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）疫情公共卫生防控的流行病学研究重点。
Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(6). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.6.2000110. Epub 2020 Feb 11.
5
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.香港严重急性呼吸系统综合症病原体传播的流行病学决定因素。
Lancet. 2003 May 24;361(9371):1761-6. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13410-1.
Zotero 插件