School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
Department of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;97:1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.055. Epub 2020 Apr 24.
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has been basically controlled. However, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is worsening. We established a method to estimate the instant case fatality rate (CFR) and cure rate of COVID-19 in China.
A total of 82 735 confirmed cases released officially by the Chinese authorities from December 8, 2019 to April 18, 2020 were collected. The estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were calculated based on the median cure time or median death time of individual cases. Following this, the instant CFR was calculated according to the number of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis date.
In China, the instant CFR of COVID-19 was 3.8-14.6% from January 1 to January 17; it then declined gradually and stabilized at 5.7% in April. The average CFR in China was 6.1±2.9%, while the CFR was 1.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. The cure rate of COVID-19 was 93.9±2.9% in China, and stabilized at 94.3%, while it was 99.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province.
The instant CFR of COVID-19 in China overall was much higher than that in China except Hubei Province. The CFR of COVID-19 in China was underestimated.
中国 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情已基本得到控制。然而，COVID-19 全球疫情却在恶化。我们建立了一种方法来估计中国 COVID-19 的即时病死率（CFR）和治愈率。
共收集了 2019 年 12 月 8 日至 2020 年 4 月 18 日中国官方公布的 82735 例确诊病例。根据个体病例的中位数治愈时间或中位数死亡时间，计算出死亡和治愈病例的估计诊断日期。随后，根据同日估计的诊断日期的死亡和治愈病例数计算即时 CFR。
在中国，1 月 1 日至 1 月 17 日 COVID-19 的即时 CFR 为 3.8-14.6%；然后逐渐下降，4 月稳定在 5.7%。中国的平均 CFR 为 6.1±2.9%，而中国除湖北省以外的地区为 1.0±0.4%。COVID-19 的治愈率在中国为 93.9±2.9%，稳定在 94.3%，而中国除湖北省以外的地区为 99.0±0.4%。
中国 COVID-19 的即时 CFR 总体上高于中国除湖北省以外的地区。中国 COVID-19 的 CFR 被低估了。
