Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1251-1256. doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200233. Epub 2020 Jun 17.
Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
自 2019 年 12 月中国湖北省武汉市首次报告冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例以来，中国已出现数万例病例。截至 2020 年 2 月 28 日，中国报告的死亡累计人数为 2858 人。我们估计了 COVID-19 在武汉以及中国除武汉以外地区的死亡时间调整风险，以评估疫情在中国的严重程度。我们对武汉的死亡风险估计值高达疫情中心地区的 12%，其他受影响较轻的地区则约为 1%。高死亡率的估计值可能与医疗体系崩溃有关，这表明应采取强化公共卫生干预措施，包括社会隔离和行动限制，以控制 COVID-19 疫情。
