W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, MI, USA.
Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Jun;26(6):3715-3725. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15080. Epub 2020 Apr 8.
Agricultural management recommendations based on short-term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long-term reality. Here, we test the long-term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no-till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no-till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29-year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no-till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29-year trends. Only marginal trends for N O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no-till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short-term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no-till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.
基于短期研究的农业管理建议可能会产生与长期现实不一致的结果。在这里，我们测试了免耕农业在产量、土壤水分可用性和氮氧化物通量方面的长期环境可持续性和盈利能力。我们使用移动窗口方法，在美国中西部的一个地点，在 29 年的时间内，比较了连续免耕农业和传统耕作农业的几个属性的发展和稳定性。需要十多年的时间才能发现免耕的一致影响。作物产量和土壤水分可用性都需要 15 年或更长时间才能形成与 29 年趋势一致的模式。在此期间，氮氧化物通量仅出现了边际趋势。相对盈利能力分析表明，在初始实施后，86%的 10 年至 29 年期间恢复了免耕实施的初始成本，随着寿命的延长，获得更高相对利润的可能性增加。重要的是，在超过 20%的检查期间出现了具有统计学意义但具有误导性的短期趋势。研究结果强调了进行十年及更长时间研究的重要性，这对于揭示免耕农业的一致动态和新兴结果至关重要，从长期来看，免耕农业是有益的。
