School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China; Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin 300162, China.
J Safety Res. 2020 Feb;72:21-28. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2019.12.011. Epub 2019 Dec 31.
We used road crashes between vehicles and two-wheelers from Yinzhou District Ningbo in 2011-2015 from the China In-depth Accident Study (CIDAS) as sample cases. The risk factors of different injury severity grades were analyzed.
The classification tree model was used to screen the possible interaction items, and the corresponding regression model was constructed according to the results of the tree model to explore the influencing factors of cyclist injury.
The road types, weather types, gender, age of the riders, and vehicle speed were significantly correlated with the dependent variables. The interaction effect of genderroad type, weatherage, weatherspeed and speedage were obtained through a tree model.
The risk of male casualties at the crossroads was 3.31 times higher than that of female casualties at the straight roads. On sunny days, the risk of crash casualties in Ningbo was low, and the fatality risk when the speed reached 38 km/h was 10%. Under the interaction effect of weather and age, the fatality risk in cloudy/foggy and rainy days was almost coincident, and the serious risk in cloudy/foggy conditions was the highest. Practical applications: Through factor analysis, it is confirmed that there is interaction effect among the factors, and it can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate more targeted and effective governance strategies.
我们使用了 2011-2015 年来自中国深入事故研究（CIDAS）的宁波市鄞州区车辆与两轮车之间的道路碰撞事故作为样本案例。分析了不同损伤严重程度的危险因素。
使用分类树模型筛选可能的交互项，并根据树模型的结果构建相应的回归模型，以探讨影响自行车手受伤的因素。
道路类型、天气类型、性别、骑车人的年龄和车辆速度与因变量显著相关。通过树模型得到了性别道路类型、天气年龄、天气速度和速度年龄的交互效应。
在直道上，男性在交叉路口的伤亡风险比女性高 3.31 倍。在晴天，宁波的碰撞伤亡风险较低，当速度达到 38km/h 时，死亡率为 10%。在天气和年龄的交互作用下，多云/雾天和雨天的死亡率几乎相同，多云/雾天的严重风险最高。
通过因素分析，证实了这些因素之间存在交互作用，为相关部门制定更有针对性和有效的治理策略提供了参考。
