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印度北方邦两轮车道路交通事故的天气驱动风险评估模型

Weather-driven risk assessment model for two-wheeler road crashes in Uttar Pradesh, India.

作者信息

Garg Tripti, Toshniwal Durga, Parida Manoranjan

机构信息

Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India.

Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 26;15(1):6859. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-91369-2.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-91369-2
PMID:40011545
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11865281/
Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between weather conditions and two-wheeler road crashes in Uttar Pradesh, India, which experiences diverse climatic conditions. A novel framework, the Weather-Influenced Clustering and Random Sampling (WICRS) model, is proposed for Relative Accident (crash) Risk (RAR) analysis. Initially, a preliminary analysis of crash data based on location, human, and environmental factors provides insights into contributing factors. Building on these findings, the WICRS model categorizes weather patterns using highly randomized sampling-based clustering, a departure from traditional matched pair analysis (MPA). The study also conducts a stratified RAR analysis, considering variables such as gender, road type, and time of day. The effectiveness of the WICRS model is validated by comparing its impact with MPA, specifically examining risk analysis for wet and non-wet days. The dataset includes over 954,000 two-wheeler crash incidents, combined with historical weather data over six years. The findings highlight the significance of weather conditions in two-wheeler crashes and support the use of the WICRS model for detailed RAR analysis and road safety policy formulation.

摘要

本研究调查了印度北方邦天气状况与两轮车道路交通事故之间的关系，该邦气候条件多样。针对相对事故（碰撞）风险（RAR）分析，提出了一种新颖的框架——天气影响聚类与随机抽样（WICRS）模型。首先，基于地点、人为和环境因素对碰撞数据进行初步分析，以深入了解促成因素。基于这些发现，WICRS模型使用高度随机抽样的聚类方法对天气模式进行分类，这与传统的配对分析（MPA）不同。该研究还进行了分层RAR分析，考虑了性别、道路类型和一天中的时间等变量。通过将WICRS模型的影响与MPA进行比较，特别是检查潮湿和非潮湿天气的风险分析，验证了WICRS模型的有效性。数据集包括超过95.4万起两轮车碰撞事故，并结合了六年的历史天气数据。研究结果突出了天气状况在两轮车碰撞事故中的重要性，并支持使用WICRS模型进行详细的RAR分析和道路安全政策制定。

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