《2019 - 2028年国家卫生支出预测：价格预期反弹推动支出增长上升》
National Health Expenditure Projections, 2019-28: Expected Rebound In Prices Drives Rising Spending Growth.
作者信息
Keehan Sean P, Cuckler Gigi A, Poisal John A, Sisko Andrea M, Smith Sheila D, Madison Andrew J, Rennie Kathryn E, Fiore Jacqueline A, Hardesty James C
机构信息
Sean P. Keehan ( sean. keehan@cms. hhs. gov ) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
出版信息
Health Aff (Millwood). 2020 Apr;39(4):704-714. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00094. Epub 2020 Mar 24.
National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent for 2019-28 and to represent 19.7 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the period. Price growth for medical goods and services is projected to accelerate, averaging 2.4 percent per year for 2019-28, which partly reflects faster expected growth in health-sector wages. Among all major payers, Medicare is expected to experience the fastest spending growth (7.6 percent per year), largely as a result of having the highest projected enrollment growth. The insured share of the population is expected to fall from 90.6 percent in 2018 to 89.4 percent by 2028.
预计2019 - 2028年期间国家卫生支出将以年均5.4%的速度增长，到该时期末将占国内生产总值的19.7%。预计医疗商品和服务的价格增长将加速，2019 - 2028年期间平均每年增长2.4%，这部分反映了卫生部门工资预期更快的增长。在所有主要支付方中，医疗保险预计支出增长最快（每年7.6%），这主要是由于预计参保人数增长最高。预计人口的参保比例将从2018年的90.6%降至2028年的89.4%。
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