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在一个流动性极高的全球社会中反复出现流行病和大流行病的可能性。

The potential of recurrent epidemics and pandemics in a highly mobile global society.

作者信息

Daddar Sabrina, Nirupama N

机构信息

Disaster and Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada.

出版信息

Nat Hazards (Dordr). 2015;77(2):1395-1403. doi: 10.1007/s11069-015-1628-7. Epub 2015 Jan 28.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to demonstrate how latent epidemics can potentially evolve into a pandemic instantaneously due to globally mobile human population in recent times, as can be seen in the ongoing Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Selected cases of current epidemics are used in this study to identify emergent patterns. These cases exemplify the need for a comprehensive analysis of infectious diseases and serve as an initial stage when developing appropriate strategies in improving epidemic management. This study can help better understand the complexities of infectious diseases and assist in developing a specific set of preventative processes from the individual to international levels when developing strategies to reducing the effects of an epidemic outbreak.

摘要

本研究的目的是证明,由于近期全球人口流动,潜在的流行病如何可能瞬间演变成大流行病,正如在西非持续的埃博拉疫情中所见。本研究使用当前流行病的选定案例来识别新出现的模式。这些案例体现了对传染病进行全面分析的必要性,并作为制定改善疫情管理的适当策略的初始阶段。本研究有助于更好地理解传染病的复杂性,并在制定减少疫情爆发影响的策略时,协助制定一套从个人到国际层面的具体预防措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d176/7089195/5a5b110cdba9/11069_2015_1628_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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