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具有白色高斯噪声的流行病传播建模。

Modeling of epidemic spreading with white Gaussian noise.

作者信息

Gu Jiao, Gao ZongMao, Li Wei

机构信息

1Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, 04103 Germany.

2College of Physical Science and Technology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079 China.

出版信息

Chin Sci Bull. 2011;56(34):3683-3688. doi: 10.1007/s11434-011-4753-z. Epub 2011 Dec 2.

DOI:10.1007/s11434-011-4753-z
PMID:32214739
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7088684/
Abstract

Motivated by the need to include the different characteristics of individuals and the damping effect in predictions of epidemic spreading, we build a model with variant coefficients and white Gaussian noise based on the traditional SIR model. The analytic and simulation results predicted by the model are presented and discussed. The simulations show that using the variant coefficients results in a higher percentage of susceptible individuals and a lower percentage of removed individuals. When the noise is included in the model, the percentage of infected individuals has a wider peak and more fluctuations than that predicted using the traditional SIR model.

摘要

出于在流行病传播预测中纳入个体不同特征和阻尼效应的需求，我们基于传统的SIR模型构建了一个具有变系数和高斯白噪声的模型。给出并讨论了该模型预测的分析和模拟结果。模拟表明，使用变系数会导致易感个体的比例更高，移除个体的比例更低。当模型中包含噪声时，感染个体的比例比使用传统SIR模型预测的情况具有更宽的峰值和更多的波动。