Cao ChunXiang, Xu Min, Chang ChaoYi, Xue Yong, Zhong ShaoBo, Fang LiQun, Cao WuChun, Zhang Hao, Gao MengXu, He QiSheng, Zhao Jian, Chen Wei, Zheng Sheng, Li XiaoWen
1State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China.
3Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 China.
Chin Sci Bull. 2010;55(36):4168-4178. doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-4225-x. Epub 2010 Dec 9.
A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.
采用逻辑模型将高致病性禽流感（HPAI）的爆发与相关环境因素及鸟类迁徙进行关联。基于中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）的归一化植被指数数据，借助逻辑回归在生成概率图时考虑了环境因素。采用贝叶斯最大熵模型探索HPAI发病率的时空相关性。结果表明，靠近水体和国家公路与HPAI的发生在统计学上具有相关性。候鸟，主要是水禽，是HPAI传播中的重要感染源。此外，HPAI疫情具有较高的时空自相关性。由于城市和水体的分布模式不同，此次疫情的空间范围波动了45公里。此外，两次疫情的发生间隔可能为22天。基于这些发现，模拟了2004年1月23日至2月17日中国大陆发生HPAI的潜在风险，为环境因素在HPAI风险预测中的应用提供了一个有用的元模型框架。
