Araz O M, Lant T, Fowler J W, Jehn M
1Arizona State University, Tempe, USA.
2Decision Theater, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA.
J Simul. 2011;5(2):89-100. doi: 10.1057/jos.2010.6. Epub 2010 Apr 16.
Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.
大流行性流感防范计划高度关注有效的缓解策略，包括社交距离、后勤保障和医疗应对。这些策略由多个决策者在大流行爆发前以及在地方社区、州和全国范围内的大流行期间制定。在本文中，我们对大流行性流感在当地社区、一所大学中的传播进行建模，并评估缓解政策。由于研发合适的疫苗需要大量时间，且现有的抗病毒药物数量只能覆盖相对较小比例的人群，大学决策者将首先关注非药物干预措施。这些干预措施包括保持社交距离和隔离。疾病传播被建模为基于微分方程的 compartments 模型。针对多种非药物干预措施对该系统进行模拟，如社交距离措施，包括暂停大学运营、疏散宿舍人员以及在校园内隔离感染者。尽管该模型是基于世界上最大的大学之一亚利桑那州立大学的防范计划构建的，但它可以很容易地推广到其他学院和大学。通过多次模拟运行对这些政策和决策进行了测试，并在本文中给出了缓解策略的评估结果。
