Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China.
PLoS One. 2020 Apr 3;15(4):e0229894. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229894. eCollection 2020.
The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature-dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models-to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between 2001 and 2018 and used dynamic simulations of the model to project the influence of climate on area burned over the next twenty years. Our analysis demonstrates that area burned was most sensitive to wind speed and temperature. A 1% increase in wind speed was associated with a 20.8% and 22.8% increase in observed and predicted area burned respectively, while a 1% increase in maximum temperature was associated with an 8.7% and 9.7% increase in observed and predicted future area burned. Dynamic simulations of ARDL models provide insights into the variability of area burned across Inner Mongolia grasslands in the context of anthropogenic climate change.
气候变化对野火的影响受到了相当多的关注，但很少有研究探讨气候变率对欧亚大陆广阔草原地区草地燃烧面积的潜在影响。我们使用了一种新颖的统计方法，借鉴自社会科学文献——自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型的动态模拟——来探索温度、相对湿度、降水、风速、阳光和碳排放与中国北方内蒙古锡林郭勒大面积草原景观的草地燃烧面积之间的关系。我们使用 ARDL 模型来描述这些变量对 2001 年至 2018 年观测到的燃烧面积的影响，并使用模型的动态模拟来预测未来二十年气候对燃烧面积的影响。我们的分析表明，燃烧面积对风速和温度最敏感。风速每增加 1%，观测到的和预测的燃烧面积分别增加 20.8%和 22.8%，而最高温度每增加 1%，观测到的和预测的未来燃烧面积分别增加 8.7%和 9.7%。ARDL 模型的动态模拟为在人为气候变化背景下了解内蒙古草原燃烧面积的变化提供了深入的见解。
