Zubkova Maria, Boschetti Luigi, Abatzoglou John T, Giglio Louis
Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
Geophys Res Lett. 2019 Jul 16;46(13):7643-7653. doi: 10.1029/2019gl083469. Epub 2019 Jun 27.
While several studies have reported a recent decline in area burned in Africa, the causes of this decline are still not well understood. In this study, we found that from 2002 to 2016 burned area in Africa declined by 18.5%, with the strongest decline (80% of the area) in the Northern Hemisphere. One third of the reduction in burned area occurred in croplands, suggesting that changes in agricultural practices (including cropland expansion) are not the predominant factor behind recent changes in fire extent. Linear models that considered interannual variability in climate factors directly related to biomass productivity and aridity explained about 70% of the decline in burned area in natural land cover. Our results provide evidence that despite the fact that most fires are human-caused in Africa, increased terrestrial moisture during 2002-2016 facilitated declines in fire activity in Africa.
尽管有几项研究报告称非洲近期的火烧面积有所下降，但这种下降的原因仍未得到很好的理解。在本研究中，我们发现，2002年至2016年期间，非洲的火烧面积下降了18.5%，其中北半球下降最为明显（占该地区的80%）。火烧面积减少的三分之一发生在农田，这表明农业实践的变化（包括农田扩张）并非近期火灾范围变化的主要因素。考虑到与生物量生产力和干旱直接相关的气候因子年际变化的线性模型，解释了自然土地覆盖类型中火烧面积下降的约70%。我们的研究结果表明，尽管非洲的大多数火灾是人为造成的，但2002年至2016年期间陆地湿度的增加促进了非洲火灾活动的减少。
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