Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada.
Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada.
Nat Commun. 2019 Mar 20;10(1):1265. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z.
Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.
预测未来的生态系统动态，关键取决于更好地理解干扰和气候变化如何在过去推动了长期的生态变化。在这里，我们汇集了来自 19 世纪的超过 10 万种树种清单，这些清单来自于加拿大东部广阔地区（超过 13 万千米），以及最近的森林清查数据，以检验人为干扰、温度和湿度变化对森林动态的影响。我们使用四个指数来评估森林组成的变化，这些指数量化了共同出现的树种与温度、干旱、光照和干扰的亲和力。由土地利用驱动的有利于更能适应干扰的树种的转变比归因于气候变化的任何影响都要强得多，尽管物种对干扰的反应与它们对气候变化的预期反应有关。因此，人为和自然干扰预计将对森林产生直接的重大影响，并通过对未来气候变化的反应变化产生间接影响。
