Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Population Research Center, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India.
Soc Sci Med. 2020 May;253:112964. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.112964. Epub 2020 Mar 30.
With global improvements in life expectancy, one important concern is to understand whether there is reduction in inequalities or greater cross-country convergence in expected length of life at various age thresholds. Insights on convergence patterns can help governments and other stakeholders decide upon health investments across age groups. This paper applies a novel econometric approach to test convergence and identify convergent clubs in life expectancy at various age groups for 201 countries/areas between 1950 and 2015. Life expectancy estimates for 201 countries/areas (1950 and 2015) from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) World Population Prospects (2015 Revision) are used for the analysis. We find global convergence in life expectancy at birth, but do not observe grand convergence for any other age groups. In the case of life expectancy at younger ages, most countries are moving in the same direction, but significant cross-country variations and convergence clubs are noted for older adults and elderly. Most of the better performing countries/areas are from Western Europe, Northern Europe and North America, the average performers are from South America, Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Africa, Central Africa, and the Caribbean Islands whereas the poor-performing ones are mainly Western Africa, Southern African and Oceania. In addition, we observe increasing between-country variance in life expectancy for older adults and elderly. The analysis reveals increasing global heterogeneity in the survival experience of older adults and the elderly population which has remained a neglected aspect in the discussions on global life expectancy improvements. Data, research and policy focus on life-expectancy at older ages is therefore critical to accelerate survival gains among older adults and elderly, particularly from the developing world.
随着全球预期寿命的提高，人们越来越关注的一个问题是，在不同的年龄门槛上，人们的预期寿命是否会减少不平等或更大程度地趋同。对趋同模式的了解可以帮助政府和其他利益相关者决定在不同年龄组的健康投资。本文应用一种新的计量经济学方法，检验 1950 年至 2015 年间 201 个国家/地区在不同年龄组的预期寿命中的趋同和识别趋同俱乐部。使用联合国经济和社会事务部（UNDESA）《世界人口展望（2015 年修订版）》提供的 201 个国家/地区的预期寿命估计值（1950 年和 2015 年）进行分析。我们发现，出生时的预期寿命存在全球趋同，但对于其他任何年龄组都没有观察到大的趋同。在更年轻的年龄组的预期寿命方面，大多数国家都在朝着同一个方向前进，但对于老年人和老年人，我们注意到了显著的国家间差异和趋同俱乐部。表现较好的国家/地区主要来自西欧、北欧和北美，表现一般的国家/地区来自南美洲、东欧、南欧、南亚、中亚、东非、中非和加勒比海岛屿，而表现较差的国家/地区主要来自西非、南部非洲和大洋洲。此外，我们观察到老年人的预期寿命的国家间差异在增加。分析表明，老年人和老年人口的生存经验在全球范围内的异质性在增加，这在讨论全球预期寿命提高方面一直是一个被忽视的方面。因此，对老年人的预期寿命进行数据、研究和政策关注对于加速老年人和老年人的生存收益至关重要，特别是来自发展中国家的收益。
