School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 May 15;262:110378. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110378. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
Considering the enlarging inter-provincial disparities in China as regards carbon emissions and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit gross domestic product), this paper is the first study to investigate the inter-provincial carbon imbalance by constructing and employing the Kaya-Zenga index. We use China's panel data of provincial-level carbon emissions over 1995-2016 to quantitatively measure the levels of inter-provincial imbalance and polarization in carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Further, we decompose the Kaya-Zenga index into different contributing factors both regionally and structurally and perform a scenario analysis to identify the corresponding regionally differentiated countermeasures regarding carbon emission reduction. The results show that the imbalance in carbon emissions is mainly caused by imbalances in population scale and income level, while the imbalance in carbon intensity predominantly results from imbalances in energy efficiency and energy mix. In addition, for heavy manufacturing provinces, the respective emission-reduction strategy should aim at lowering energy intensity through local technology improvement and inter-regional technology transfer. For light manufacturing and high technology provinces, carbon emission reduction is harder to be achieved; however, a mix of policies of improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy mix, and industrial upgrading should be implemented. The results of the scenario analysis indicate that reducing imbalance in carbon intensity under different scenarios can lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions (up to 10%).
考虑到中国在碳排放和碳强度（单位国内生产总值的碳排放量）方面的省际差距不断扩大，本文首次通过构建和运用卡亚-曾加指数来研究省际碳失衡问题。我们利用中国 1995-2016 年省级碳排放的面板数据，定量衡量了碳排放和碳强度的省际不平衡和极化程度。此外，我们将卡亚-曾加指数分解为不同的区域和结构性贡献因素，并进行情景分析，以确定相应的区域差异化减排对策。结果表明，碳排放的不平衡主要是由人口规模和收入水平的不平衡造成的，而碳强度的不平衡主要是由能源效率和能源结构的不平衡造成的。此外，对于重工业省份，其减排策略应旨在通过本地技术改进和区域间技术转移来降低能源强度。对于轻工业和高科技省份，减排难度更大；然而，应实施提高能源效率、优化能源结构和产业升级相结合的政策。情景分析的结果表明，在不同情景下降低碳强度的不平衡可以显著减少碳排放（高达 10%）。
