Arch Acad Emerg Med. 2020 Mar 22;8(1):e32. eCollection 2020.
To forecast the COVID-19 epidemic trend in Iran, a set of dynamic models were created. In these models, the effect of climate and community behavior change on the reproductive number is modeled. A baseline scenario is also defined as letting the epidemic grow naturally, with no prevention/control interventions. Different levels of intervention are also defined based on the extent of population isolation. Outcomes of each scenario on the number of infected cases are computed. Modeling results shows that if effective isolation occurs in 10% of the population, 307,000 individuals will be infected with COVID-19 in Iran by May 20, 2020. For an isolation rate of 25%, started since March 10, 2020, cumulative number of deaths will be 13,450 individuals by May 20, 2020. If preventive efforts can reach a 32% effective isolation rate, a considerable decrease in the number of new cases would be expected during April and May, and the total number of deaths would decrease to 8,630. If the isolation rate increases to 40%, the total number of infected individuals is expected to be 6,030 individuals. It should be acknowledged that this model predicts the number of deaths of all COVID-19 cases, including those who will not be confirmed as COVID-19, because of non-testing or death prior to COVID-19 identification. This serious health issue requires both long-term and short-term planning and arrangements. Social distancing, and identification and isolation of suspected and confirmed cases are believed to be the most important and effective control measure, and should be strengthened soon. For further details on the methodology and results of these models, please visit: http://corona.behdasht.gov.ir/files/site1/files/Covid_Modeling_V14_26.12.98.pdf.
为预测伊朗的新冠疫情趋势，创建了一组动态模型。在这些模型中，对气候和社区行为变化对繁殖数的影响进行了建模。还定义了一个基线情景，即让疫情自然发展，不采取预防/控制干预措施。此外，根据人口隔离程度定义了不同级别的干预措施。计算了每种情景下感染病例数的结果。建模结果显示，如果10%的人口进行有效隔离，到2020年5月20日，伊朗将有30.7万人感染新冠病毒。对于自2020年3月10日起开始的25%的隔离率，到2020年5月20日，累计死亡人数将为13450人。如果预防措施能达到32%的有效隔离率，预计4月和5月新病例数将大幅减少，死亡总数将降至8630人。如果隔离率提高到40%，预计感染总人数将为6030人。应该认识到，该模型预测了所有新冠病例的死亡人数，包括那些因未检测或在确诊新冠之前死亡而未被确诊为新冠的病例。这个严重的健康问题需要长期和短期的规划与安排。社交距离以及对疑似和确诊病例的识别与隔离被认为是最重要和有效的控制措施，应尽快加强。有关这些模型的方法和结果的更多详细信息，请访问：http://corona.behdasht.gov.ir/files/site1/files/Covid_Modeling_V14_26.12.98.pdf 。
