Ito Harumi, Lee Darin
Department of Economics, Box B, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA.
LECG, Corp. 350 Massachusetts Avenue, Suite 300, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
J Econ Bus. 2005 Jan-Feb;57(1):75-95. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2004.06.003. Epub 2004 Oct 28.
This paper assesses the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks and its after-effects on U.S. airline demand. Using monthly time-series data from 1986 to 2003, we find that September 11 resulted in both a negative transitory shock of over 30% and an ongoing negative demand shock amounting to roughly 7.4% of pre-September 11 demand. This ongoing demand shock has yet to dissipate (as of November 2003) and cannot be explained by economic, seasonal, or other factors.
本文评估了9·11恐怖袭击及其后续影响对美国航空需求的作用。利用1986年至2003年的月度时间序列数据，我们发现9·11事件既造成了超过30%的短暂负面冲击，也导致了持续的负面需求冲击，其规模约为9·11事件前需求的7.4%。这种持续的需求冲击尚未消散（截至2003年11月），且无法用经济、季节或其他因素来解释。
