Li Jianbao, Huang Xianjin, Yang Hong, Chuai Xiaowei, Wu Changyan
School of Geography and Oceanography Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
The Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, Nanjing, China.
Habitat Int. 2017 Feb;60:58-68. doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.12.012. Epub 2016 Dec 27.
As China's industrialization and urbanization have grown rapidly in recent years, China's CO emissions rose from 3405.1799 Mt to 10,249.4630 Mt from 2000 to 2013, and it has reached the highest levels in the word since 2006. Chinese government has emphasized the importance of reducing carbon emissions and set the target of reducing carbon intensity to 60-65% of 2005 levels by 2030. Investigating the convergence of carbon intensity can identify the convergence rate, which is helpful in guiding allocations of carbon intensity reduction. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the key carbon emission regions in China, with higher urbanization levels and larger carbon emissions; thus, we employed prefecture-level panel data derived from grid data between 2000 and 2010 to examine whether the convergence of carbon intensity exists across prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta. Spatial panel data models were utilized to investigate β-convergence of carbon intensity. The results indicated that carbon intensity showed divergence during 2002-2004 and σ-convergence over other periods (2000-2002 and 2004-2010). Carbon intensity exhibited stochastic convergence, indicating that the shocks to carbon intensity relative to the average level of carbon intensity are only transitory. There was a spatial spillover effect and β-convergence of carbon intensity, suggesting that prefecture-level cities with higher carbon intensity would decrease rapidly in the Yangtze River Delta. Our results highlight the importance of considering the present state of carbon intensity, spatial factors, and socioeconomic factors such as industrial structure and economic levels during allocation planning for reducing carbon intensity.
近年来，随着中国工业化和城市化的快速发展，2000年至2013年中国的一氧化碳排放量从3405.1799百万吨升至10249.4630百万吨，自2006年以来已达到世界最高水平。中国政府强调了减少碳排放的重要性，并设定了到2030年将碳强度降至2005年水平的60%-65%的目标。研究碳强度的收敛性可以确定收敛速度，这有助于指导碳强度减排的分配。长江三角洲是中国碳排放的关键区域之一，城市化水平较高，碳排放量较大；因此，我们采用了2000年至2010年基于网格数据得出的地级市面板数据，以检验长江三角洲各地级市之间是否存在碳强度收敛。利用空间面板数据模型研究碳强度的β收敛。结果表明，碳强度在2002-2004年期间呈现发散，在其他时期（2000-2002年和2004-2010年）呈现σ收敛。碳强度呈现随机收敛，这表明相对于碳强度平均水平的碳强度冲击只是暂时的。存在碳强度的空间溢出效应和β收敛，这表明长江三角洲碳强度较高的地级市将迅速下降。我们的结果凸显了在碳强度减排分配规划中考虑碳强度现状、空间因素以及产业结构和经济水平等社会经济因素的重要性。
