Wuri Josephine, Widodo Tri, Hardi Amirullah Setya
Faculty of Economics and Business, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Faculty of Economics, Sanata Dharma University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Heliyon. 2023 Jul 15;9(7):e18070. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18070. eCollection 2023 Jul.
The COVID-19 pandemic is creating uncertainty that potentially causes a decline in global trade. It hampers the catching-up processes of developing countries because they are already connected through global value chains (GVCs). This study investigates the speed of convergence in GVC participation. Furthermore, we propose a forward and backward GVC participation approach to trace domestic and foreign value-added contributions and to overcome overvaluation in gross exports. We compare forward and backward linkages and determine countries' convergence speeds. We scrutinize stochastic, σ, and β-convergence using the system generalized method of moments; additionally, we use this method to address potential endogeneity issues. Using a dynamic panel approach, we investigate global convergence countries in GVCs and possible foreign direct investment (FDI) factors that may influence convergence. In addition, we analyze the early effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the convergence rate using the recent Asian Development Bank multi-regional input-output database that covers the period 2010-2019. The results illustrate convergence in both forward and backward GVC participation; however, the convergence speed varies among group countries. A group comprising countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other countries experiences faster convergence than advanced countries in forward GVC participation. In contrast, advanced countries experience faster convergence in backward GVC participation. Furthermore, the results reveal that FDI plays a significant role in GVC participation. Overall, The COVID-19 pandemic has decreased GVC participation on average.
新冠疫情正制造不确定性，这可能导致全球贸易下滑。它阻碍了发展中国家的追赶进程，因为这些国家已通过全球价值链（GVC）相互连接。本研究考察了全球价值链参与度的收敛速度。此外，我们提出了一种前向和后向全球价值链参与度方法，以追踪国内外增值贡献，并克服总出口中的高估问题。我们比较前向和后向联系，并确定各国的收敛速度。我们使用系统广义矩估计法仔细研究随机收敛、σ收敛和β收敛；此外，我们使用这种方法来解决潜在的内生性问题。采用动态面板方法，我们研究了全球价值链中的收敛国家以及可能影响收敛的外国直接投资（FDI）因素。此外，我们利用亚洲开发银行最近的多区域投入产出数据库（涵盖2010 - 2019年期间）分析了新冠疫情对收敛速度的早期影响。结果表明，前向和后向全球价值链参与度均存在收敛；然而，收敛速度在不同国家组之间有所不同。在全球价值链前向参与方面，东南亚国家联盟成员国和其他国家组成的国家组比发达国家收敛速度更快。相比之下，发达国家在全球价值链后向参与方面收敛速度更快。此外，结果显示外国直接投资在全球价值链参与中发挥着重要作用。总体而言，新冠疫情平均降低了全球价值链参与度。
