Okuyama Tadahiro
Department of Public Policy, Faculty of Regional Design and Development, University of Nagasaki, 123 Kawashimo-cho, Sasebo-Shi, Nagasaki 858-8580, Japan.
Tour Manag. 2018 Feb;64:37-54. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.07.019. Epub 2017 Aug 10.
This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.
本文探讨了或有行为（以下简称CB）方法在分析旅游需求复苏中的动态过程和有效政策方面的适用性。本研究使用的CB问卷采用了日本京都禽流感的假设灾难情景。相应地设计了安全、活动、游客信息和价格折扣政策。然后询问受访者出行时间的意愿。结果显示了一年中制定相关政策的最佳时机。我们发现，第一步需要在灾难现场去污后一周内立即发布安全信息公告。第二步是在灾难发生后的第24至36周实施活动信息政策。第三步是在第二步之后的第37至52周内公布游客信息。最后一步是在第三步之后立即实施价格折扣政策，直至第52周。
