Chen Tinggui, Peng Lijuan, Yin Xiaohua, Jing Bailu, Yang Jianjun, Cong Guodong, Li Gongfa
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People's Republic of China.
School of Management and E-Business, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People's Republic of China.
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2020 Dec 31;13:3211-3233. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S284564. eCollection 2020.
At the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on China's tourism industry, which was almost at a standstill in the short-term. After reaching the preliminarily stable state, the government and the scenic area management department implemented a series of incentive policies in order to speed up the recovery of the tourism industry. Therefore, analyzing all sorts of social effects after policy implementation is of guiding significance for the government and the scenic areas.
Targeted as the social effect with the implementation of tourism promotion policy during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper briefly analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the national cultural and tourism industry and selects several representative types of tourism policies, crawls the comment data of Weibo users, analyzes users' perception and emotional preference to the policy, and thus mines the social effect of various policies. Subsequently, by identifying the social effects of various policies as dependent variables, a binary logistic regression model is constructed to obtain the best combination of tourism promotion policies and promote the rapid revitalization of the cultural and tourism industry.
The results show that from the single policy, the social effect of the "safety" policy is the best. From the perspective of combination policies, the simultaneous release of "safety" policies and "economy" policies have the greatest social impact, which can dramatically accelerate the recovery of the cultural and tourism industry. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions for policy formulation to improve the ability of the cultural tourism industry to cope with crisis events.
These results explain the perceived effects of the public on the government policies and can be used to judge whether the policies have been released in place. Based on the above results, corresponding suggestions are proposed as follows: 1) the combination of economic policies and security policies can achieve better results; and 2) the role of "opinion leaders" can be played to improve the perceived effect of policies.
2019年末，新冠疫情的爆发对中国旅游业产生了重大影响，短期内旅游业几乎陷入停滞。在达到初步稳定状态后，政府和景区管理部门实施了一系列激励政策，以加速旅游业的复苏。因此，分析政策实施后的各种社会效应，对政府和景区具有指导意义。
针对新冠疫情期间旅游促进政策实施的社会效应，本文简要分析了新冠疫情对国家文化和旅游业的影响，选取了几种具有代表性的旅游政策类型，抓取微博用户的评论数据，分析用户对政策的认知和情感偏好，从而挖掘各项政策的社会效应。随后，将各项政策的社会效应作为因变量，构建二元逻辑回归模型，以获得旅游促进政策的最佳组合，推动文化和旅游业的快速振兴。
结果表明，从单一政策来看，“安全”政策的社会效应最佳。从组合政策来看，“安全”政策和“经济”政策同时发布产生的社会影响最大，能够显著加速文化和旅游业的复苏。最后，本文提出了政策制定建议，以提高文化旅游业应对危机事件的能力。
这些结果解释了公众对政府政策的感知效果，可用于判断政策是否发布到位。基于上述结果，提出以下相应建议：1）经济政策与安全政策相结合可取得更好效果；2）发挥“意见领袖”作用，提高政策感知效果。
