Kuo Hsiao-I, Chen Chi-Chung, Tseng Wei-Chun, Ju Lan-Fen, Huang Bing-Wen
Department of Applied Economics, National Chung-Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Tour Manag. 2008 Oct;29(5):917-928. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.10.006. Epub 2008 Jan 7.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of infectious diseases including Avian Flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome (hereafter SARS) on international tourist arrivals in Asian countries using both single datasets and panel data procedures. An autoregressive moving average model together with an exogenous variables (ARMAX) model are used to estimate the effects of these diseases in each SARS- and Avian Flu-infected country, while a dynamic panel model is adopted to estimate the overall impact on the region of these two diseases. The empirical results from both approaches are consistent and indicate that the numbers of affected cases have a significant impact on SARS-affected countries but not on Avian Flu-affected countries. However, since the potential damage arising from the Avian Flu and subsequent pandemic influenza is much greater than that resulting from the SARS, the need to take the necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of Avian Flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action. Therefore, the empirical findings of this study could add to the knowledge regarding the relationship between tourism and crisis management, especially in so far as the management of transmissible diseases is concerned.
本文旨在利用单一数据集和面板数据程序，研究包括禽流感和严重急性呼吸综合征（以下简称非典）在内的传染病对亚洲国家国际游客到访量的影响。自回归移动平均模型与含外生变量的自回归移动平均模型（ARMAX）用于估计这些疾病在每个非典和禽流感感染国家的影响，而动态面板模型则用于估计这两种疾病对该地区的总体影响。两种方法的实证结果一致，表明受影响病例数对非典感染国家有显著影响，但对禽流感感染国家没有显著影响。然而，由于禽流感和随后的大流行性流感造成的潜在损害远大于非典造成的损害，在禽流感和大流行性流感爆发时采取必要预防措施的必要性值得进一步关注和行动。因此，本研究的实证结果可以增加有关旅游与危机管理之间关系的知识，特别是在传染病管理方面。
