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一个数学模型揭示的中国非典病例爆发模式。

The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model.

作者信息

Zhang Zhibin

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 25 Beisihuan Xilu, Haidian District, Beijing 100080, China.

出版信息

Ecol Modell. 2007 Jun 16;204(3):420-426. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.01.020. Epub 2007 Mar 6.

DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.01.020
PMID:32287876
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7117038/
Abstract

Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.

摘要

严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）自首次在中国广东省出现以来，已对世界许多地区，尤其是亚洲地区造成了严重破坏。人们对其流行病学了解甚少。我们开发了一种改进的离散SIR模型，该模型包括易感个体、非住院SARS患者、住院患者、治愈出院患者以及因SARS感染而死亡的患者。在此，我们证明有效繁殖数由住院和非住院SARS患者的感染率及传染期决定。SARS病毒的感染率和有效繁殖数均与累计病例总数呈显著负相关，这表明中国实施的防控措施是有效的，且中国SARS累计病例的爆发模式呈逻辑斯蒂增长曲线。我们估计中国内地SARS病毒的基本繁殖数为2.87，与新加坡和香港的估计值非常接近。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/9718058b687d/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/0c7302cd251e/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/49d20b51cadf/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/75869fe6f943/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/9718058b687d/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/0c7302cd251e/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/49d20b51cadf/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/75869fe6f943/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7fa4/7117038/9718058b687d/gr4.jpg

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