Department of Disease Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, China.
China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, No. 119, South 4th Ring Road West, Fengtai District, Beijing, China.
Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 17;10(1):22123. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-76969-4.
We established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82-5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982-2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
我们建立了一个随机的个体基础模型，模拟了冠状病毒病疫情的发生、发展和控制的全过程，以及交通关闭前感染者和患者离开湖北省的过程。此外，还使用坐标下降算法估计了基本繁殖数（R）和离开湖北省的感染者和患者的数量。疫情初期的 R 值中位数为 4.97（95%置信区间为 4.82-5.17）。在湖北省实施交通封锁之前，已有 2000 名感染者和患者（95%置信区间为 1982-2030）离开湖北省并在全国范围内流动。该模型估计，如果政府在 1 天后采取预防和控制措施，全国实验室确诊患者的累计数量将增加 32.1%。如果湖北省的封锁提前 1 天实施，其他省份的实验室确诊患者累计数量将减少 7.7%。随机模型能够很好地拟合官方发布的数据，并模拟疫情的演变过程。全国范围内的干预措施有效地遏制了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 的人际传播。
