Mukwembi Simon
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville Campus, P Bag X54001, Durban, South Africa.
Physica A. 2011 Oct 15;390(21):3915-3921. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.06.006. Epub 2011 Jun 23.
We present a dynamical model for the spread of HIV in a finite discrete population of size represented by the set . The model takes into account the structure of the sexual network, the density of infected population in each individual's sexual partners, and a reasonable amount of the influence of noninfectious HIV positive individuals on HIV infectious partners which may occur in communities. In our analytic results, we give a precise epidemic threshold which, together with certain network properties, is then used to analyse and investigate the existence of epidemic and stability in the HIV spreading dynamics. Our results reproduce common observed patterns in the dynamics of HIV spreading in communities.
我们提出了一个关于艾滋病毒在规模为 的有限离散人群中传播的动力学模型，该人群由集合 表示。该模型考虑了性网络结构、每个个体性伴侣中感染人群的密度，以及社区中可能出现的非传染性艾滋病毒阳性个体对艾滋病毒感染性伴侣的合理影响量。在我们的分析结果中，我们给出了一个精确的流行阈值，该阈值与某些网络特性一起，随后用于分析和研究艾滋病毒传播动力学中流行的存在性和稳定性。我们的结果重现了社区中艾滋病毒传播动力学中常见的观察模式。
